by Robert Gore
Many people shun mathematics, science, and logic, seeking refuge in their antitheses. A good part of human intellectual history has been attempts to either ignore equalities or turn inequalities into equalities. Forgiving, sloppy, delusional illogic is usually collective. Every age has its particular refuges. Our age has rejected the mathematics of debt. What can logically not occur, a perpetual inequality—consumption greater than production— has become the foundation of the global economy. As the tagline for Zero Hedge notes: “On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.” In the same vein, on a long enough timeline, consumption equals production. Understand that equality, and the future comes into stark relief.
Housing was the focal point of the last debt crisis. Old age funding—pensions and medical care programs—may well play that role during the next one. The math is straightforward: over time contributions and investment returns (if any) must equal promised benefits. The current reality is also straightforward: aggregate contributions, even if augmented by sterling investment returns, will be nowhere near enough to fund promised benefits. Current government and central bank policies exacerbate the predicament, making the achievement of even minimal investment returns problematic. The pay-as-you-go structure of many old age funds, such as Social Security and Medicare, does not allow for any investment returns at all.
