US Economy Shrank By 1% In The First Quarter: First Contraction Since 2011

Some highlights:

  • Personal consumption was largely unchanged at 2.09% from 2.04% in the first estimate and down from 2.22% in Q4. Considering the US consumer savings rate has tumbled to post crisis lows at the end of Q1, don’t expect much upside from this number.
  • Fixed investment also was largely unchanged, subtracting another 0.36% from growth, a little less than the -0.44% in the first estimate and well below the 0.43% contribution in Q4.
  • Net trade, or the combination of exports and imports, declined from
    -0.83% to -0.95%, far below the positive boost of 0.99% in Q4.
  • The biggest hit was in the change in private inventories, which tumbled from -0.57% in the first revision to a whopping -1.62%: the biggest contraction in the series since the revised -2.0% print recorded in Q4 2012.
  • Finally, government subtracted another -0.15% from Q1 growth, more than the -0.09% initially expected

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One Response to US Economy Shrank By 1% In The First Quarter: First Contraction Since 2011

  1. Dave says:

    Mark Whitney does about the best analysis of the market swings and the forces behind them that I have read. http://www.unz.com/mwhitney/back-in-the-red/

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