Why The Next Black Swan Will Turn Into A Flock


I was on the phone the other day with a friend, who is also my accountant. We’ve been friends going on 30 years. Once in a while our discussions will veer off into what is commonly known as “shop talk” where we find we’ve suddenly gone from “just gabbing” to a multi-hour intense conversation about markets, the economy, and more. This past one was a little more of “the exception” rather than just the average swing into the generic.

What I discerned from many of his responses was just how inadequately prepared, justifiably frightened, as well as, an overwhelming sense of foreboding was lying right below the surface of those many might deem from the outside looking in as people of wealth, industry leaders, or people who are just assumed to be “well off.”

What was just as illuminating was how many he explained “are just rolling the dice, thinking nothing could be as bad as 2008.” The additional problem? They think (or believe) if it happens again all they’ll have to do is the same as they did last time e.g. Hunker down, wait for the storm to blow over. Rinse, repeat.

The problem (in my opinion) with that thinking is this: What you think you can do this time, has already been severely handicapped or, removed all together. And most have no clue.

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