In the past week, we’ve touched on the BICC/E analytical method. It’s best used for developing enemy courses of action (COA). So if a key assumption is that we’ll be dealing with irregular threats like gangs, mobs, and criminals, or more conventional threats like regime forces (DHS, federal LEOs, military), then developing potential COAs, including the Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA) and the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA), are going to be absolutely critical for your own security.
While we’re on the topic, let’s talk Early Warning for a second. If you’ve read this blog for any amount of time, then you should know that good intelligence analysts recognize ‘indicators’. A very simple example would be the combination of you purchasing tickets to Disneyland and then filling up your vehicle with fuel. Combined, it’s a good indicator that you might be heading to Disneyland in the near future. But maybe you purchased them as Christmas presents for someone else, and you filled up your vehicle because it was nearly empty. In that case, we continue to look for indicators to confirm or deny your COAs, until it can be confirmed or denied. This is a continual process for COAs.
Indicators as early warning work the same way for you as they do for the regime analyst. It’s incumbent upon you to build a collection network, and target potential indicators for use as early warning. For instance, recruiting a homeowner who lives near a National Guard armory or regional airport would potentially allow you to receive information about an increase in personnel, equipment, or activity at these places. Post-SHTF, a couple Abrams tanks being delivered to the National Guard Armory is a pretty darn good indicator that they’re going to be used, if needed. They’ll be a critical factor in your area of operations (AO), so it’s a good idea to be in a position to learn that information as early as possible.
Back to BICC/E, this acronym (‘bicky’) stands for Behavior, Intent, Capabilities, Consequences/Effects. This is a start to finish method of looking at current activity, known or suspected goals, ability to achieve those goals, and the consequences or effects of achieving those goals.