Don’t Know Who to Believe? Buy Gold

Stocks in 2012: Up, up, but not away

The stock market’s stomach-churning roller coaster will keep running, but unlike last year’s flat finish, Wall Street experts anticipate stocks will end 2012 on a high note.

Investment strategists and money managers expect the S&P 500 will rise 7%, on average, in 2012, according to an exclusive CNNMoney survey. While that’s nothing to rejoice about, it’s an improvement from last year’s 0.003% decline — the smallest year-over-year change in the broad index in history.


OR Morgan Stanley’s Projections

US Equity Strategy -The 2012 Playbook

We are establishing a 2012 year-end price target of 1167, representing 7% downside from today’s price. The consensus top-down view has coalesced, with limited variation, around 1350, making our forecast 13% more conservative than the “muddle through” scenario implied by consensus.

While 2011 was about multiple contraction, and further contraction is likely, we think 2012 and 2013 are likely more about earnings than the multiple. We are posting a 2013 EPS estimate for the S&P500 of $103.1, 15% below the consensus bottom-up view of$121.1. We have modestly lowered our 2012 earnings forecast, from $103 to $100. We are most below the bottom-up 2012 forecasts in materials, financials, and technology. In 2013, most sectors appear to have estimates more than 10% too high. Of note, BAC is forecasted by analysts to drive 14% of the entire S&P500 EPS growth for 2012 vs. 2011.


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4 Responses to Don’t Know Who to Believe? Buy Gold

  1. Ed says:

    Buy Gold?

    Read the following articles and decide where you stand.

    Critical Thinking, where are you?

    Gold Graphs and the Future

    Make wise decisions folks.

    • David says:

      Since this article was written on January 3rd, gold is up $91 per ounce. I agree with Ed: make wise decisions and diversify.

  2. Ed says:

    Can some explain why George Soros would sell most of his gold and silver assets last year? Why would he do this?


    • David says:

      Ed poses a great question. Mr. Soros never loses money so why did he sell gold and “miss out” on increasing his profits as gold rose. The answer is simple and takes less than five minutes to find.

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