Iranian Checkmate? Oil Embargo on the European Union to Be Announced

It appears that the news concerning the demise of Iran Daily was premature: only one day’s suspension for supporting Ahmadinejad over the opposition party. The stories below detail the Iranian response to the implementation of the European Union’s oil embargo. The Majlis (Iran’s parliament) will be drafting legislation to ban oil exports to Europe prior to the EU embargo. The impact of an Iranian oil embargo to Europe may deepen the announced European recession in what is fast becoming a game of high stakes chicken.

“Experts believe that once Iran’s oil embargo takes effect, there will be a surge in oil prices and Iran will definitely be one of the parties that will benefit from the rising prices. In fact, it is only Western countries that will be losers due to the oil price hike.”

Iranian oil sales to India and China should generate enough revenue to keep their economy from collapsing but not enough to stop the current round of hyperinflation. The Iranian people should be coming out in an Iranian Spring in a matter of weeks. Unless a war breaks out prior to a populist uprising.

David DeGerolamo

Majlis to Ban Oil Sale to Europe 

The Majlis is drafting a bill to ban the sale of oil to Europe, spokesman of the Majlis Energy Commission told Mehr News Agency. Seyyed Emad Husseini predicted that the bill will be debated in the Majlis on Sunday, January 29.

He said once the Majlis passes the bill, the government will be barred from selling oil to Europe before the EU oil embargo against Iran takes effect.

Saudi Arabia Unable to Offset Iran Oil

The EU-engineered embargo on Iran’s crude oil is a “media hype” as the Saudi Arabia cannot offset the loss of Iranian oil in the market, a member of Iran’s Parliament (Majlis) said.

“The country [Saudi Arabia] cannot change the amount of its oil output in short-term. By the way, since Riyadh is [one of] the OPEC [the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries] member states, it must follow its policies,” Hassan Shabanpour said.

Foreign ministers of the European Union imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports over the country’s peaceful nuclear program during their Monday meeting in Brussels, Presstv reported.

The sanctions involve an immediate ban on all new oil contracts with Iran and a freeze on the assets of the country’s Central Bank within the EU. This comes while earlier this month Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi said the kingdom is capable of increasing its oil output after the EU agreed on imposing an embargo on Iran’s oil.

Shabanpour warned that if any problem disrupts the process of Iran’s oil export, “all the regional states will be entangled” as they will not be able to export their oil in a “calm and secure atmosphere”.

Referring to the EU’s decision on stopping the crude oil import from Iran in a six-month period, the lawmaker said, “This shows that they [the EU] are seeking to carry out a psychological operation against Iran, otherwise they would have brought the sanction into force so far.”

EU’s Self-Embargo

The European Union has approved an oil embargo against Iran based on which EU member states will stop importing Iranian oil six months from now.  The fact that the EU decision is to take effect after six months is a clear indication that the West is terribly afraid of imposing sanctions against Iran’s oil.

If the EU believed Iranian oil embargo is practical, it would implement it right now.
The delayed decision proves that Brussels seeks to benefit from a psycho war against Iran and that it is well aware of the negative backlashes of the embargo on the European and world economy.

Under the current situation there are numerous buyers in the oil market, and given the stands of world countries which have condemned the sanctions, one can easily come to the conclusion that if Iran is not a winner in the sanctions scenario, it will certainly not be a loser, either.

Experts believe that once Iran’s oil embargo takes effect, there will be a surge in oil prices and Iran will definitely be one of the parties that will benefit from the rising prices.
In fact, it is only Western countries that will be losers due to the oil price hike.

According to international laws, Iran is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear energy and the West and EU had better acknowledge this and abide by international laws. Hence, one can argue that the EU has imposed an oil embargo on itself, whereas Iran, given its high political and economic potentials, can easily surpass this stage.

      
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