A team of intelligence analysts met recently to discuss the cause/effects of the secession of Texas and the official (re)formation of the Republic of Texas. This is not a formal, finished intelligence product. The contents of this post resulted from a structured analytical secession, and is not a complete list. I facilitated and recorded the notes for publication and discussion, so please feel free to share and add your own. These Key Assumptions merely provide us with starting points to conduct follow-on analysis, preferably using structured analytic techniques.
Fact-based Key Assumptions:
1. The Texas Legislature was involved in passing the Articles of Secession.
2. The Texas Attorney General vetted and approved the legal basis for secession.
3. The Texas Governor and/or the Lieutenant Governor signed into law the Articles of Secession.
4. Texas secession results in a build-up of immigrants in the states of northern Mexico, likely leading to a worsening humanitarian crisis and an increase in border violence.