Simple Beliefs and Facts

P-values Explained By Data Scientist - Towards Data Science

I believe that the Trump administration is trying to save American lives. I believe that Dr. Fauci is the right man to have the President’s ear. I believe that our country is in the midst of a transformation that we can shape for a much better future but only if we develop the same character that existed in this land in 1776.

But these are my beliefs, not facts as presented below.

  1. In the scientific community, all research papers are based upon an initial hypothesis (H0). The hypothesis is proven or disproven by testing. The results of the testing are analyzed with a statistical program (usually SAS) and if the p value (usually 0.05 or below) validates the original hypothesis, the paper is sent to other laboratories for a peer review in which they must replicate the results of the paper. If the results cannot be replicated, then the paper is rejected. The paper will state the p value(s), it will not state if the original hypothesis is true. We saw this process completely invalidated by politicians and their lackeys in the scientific community to promote global cooling/global warming/climate change) to advance an agenda. Here is an appropriate example for SARS which EVERYONE needs to understand. Warning, this paper will educate you concerning how science works and what ADE is. To be clear, HB-19 is a SARS coronavirus.
  2. The above process takes time but I am confident that studies have been already made using the accepted process. If it was me, I would focus on the R0 value first and then the case fatality rate second (CFR). I would use populations which are not biased and have a sample size (n) of at least 100 people. With correct funding, I would prefer larger sample sizes with a minimum of 10 samples to preform an analysis of variance (ANOVA). The parameters of the testing must be well defined (age, sex ,race, climate, etc.) in order to be replicated. So the testing of HB-19 would take a few days. The results could be analyzed within a few more days. If the p value was acceptable for publication, the peer review process would begin. In the real world, a leader in the scientific community (i.e. a rainmaker) would have their initial results submitted to the government immediately. This is a shortened version of the process: I would repeat the testing on the original samples to watch the spread of the virus and to calculate the CFR every week.
  3. So where are the papers after 4 months?

I believe the data is being kept from the general public for obvious reasons. It may be that they are correct and that we cannot handle the truth. Has anyone heard even one of the talking head experts discuss a p value? Or are these “experts” just looking for their five minutes of fame. As are the politicians who have now been exposed as children lost in the forest.

I am thankful to God for the path he has led me to walk. The scientific knowledge to recognize this pandemic early through its exponential growth and China’s reaction to lockdown Wuhan allowed me to self-quarantine since the first week of February. It allowed me to be a watchman on the wall to warn others.

I pray to God that we learn from this teaching and develop the courage, virtue, morality and humility to have our souls tempered to develop a better future for our children.

David DeGerolamo

      
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2 Responses to Simple Beliefs and Facts

  1. anon says:

    “I believe the data is being kept from the general public for obvious reasons. It may be that they are correct and that we cannot handle the truth.”
    That, or the virus is being stoked up to create a economic crash so the left can hopefully come is as saviors?
    One or the other, and who can be trusted today to tell the truth? Certainly not any news agency.
    Martin Armstrong has some interesting thoughts on it all.

    • Alfred Barnes says:

      It’s a shame you don’t mention them.

      I don’t think it matters whether this was a bioweapon, it’s out. The economy is going to tank regardless of whether we quarantine, or not. The health system may not become as badly stressed as it would without quarantine.

      The problem is lack of supplies. As one peels back the layers, one factor continues to emerge, the entire mobilization beginning with Trump being elected and the subsequent efforts to remove him, has supernatural origins in a chief conspirator, the devil. There are too many disconnected parts that otherwise would be random, but the whole points to an orchestrated effort that could only have been organized in the spirit realm. The light of truth has exposed the deep state’s surveillance of all of the candidates leading up to the primaries, and the Trump campaign after the primaries. After his election, there was silence in Washington leading up to his inauguration, meaning all of the discussion was behind closed doors. The deep state never let up, and haven’t, yet they’re only one criminal organization in the satanic new (old) world order.

      The devil has pulled off a coup, yet there are limits in the natural world. It will be interesting to see how much worse this pandemic will become matched against the best health care system in the world. The financial contagion is completely digital. Zeroes and ones can be flipped with no effort. Buildings are still standing. If war breaks out, or widespread civil unrest, that becomes another matter. It means recovery takes longer. At the end of the day, we know what the future holds for the devil and his dominion.

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