# WHY THE CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE WILL INCREASE–I’m A Surgeon–Here’s The SCIENCE

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### 5 Responses to WHY THE CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE WILL INCREASE–I’m A Surgeon–Here’s The SCIENCE

1. Joe says:

Per CDC, mortality (death) rates in the US average about 2.9 million per year. Divide that by 365 and you get 79,452 per DAY that die from causes other than this virus.. Latest “official” estimates are about 100K to 200K will die from this virus. If even somewhat accurate, that works out up to about 548 deaths per day attributable to the virus. Using these numbers it would increase the average death rate up to about 80K per day and about 3.1 million per annum.

Not to make light of these tragedies, but these virus death rate numbers indicate a drop in the bucket compared to how many people normally die in this country every year. How many of these otherwise “normal” deaths are incorrectly attributed to the virus? Dead is dead no matter the cause and we still deal with these daily 79,000+ “normal” deaths without all this virus fuss we see now.

Is this virus the sole factor in actually killing folks or does it have about the same effect as other “regular” flu and virus strains which can also cause a substantial number of deaths?

• Joe says:

I’m an idiot. I calculated with one too many zeroes. Daily deaths would be about 7,945 per day.

2. Exring says:

I disagree with his conclusions and I am a Dr. as well. I have been doing it for a much longer period of time and have read, likely, orders of magnitude more Scientific Papers. I can only spend a little time on this “spreading of Panic” idiocy. First, in order to calculate a “Death Rate” you need to know the number of “Infected Patients” and the current lack of tests is one issue. The current testing process, if done at a “certified” lab (say the 2 {that is two} labs in my state of WI, it will take 3 days to get the test back. The State Health Department is asking doctors to use their discretion but has strongly suggested we only test those with a “strong” potential for having a positive. If this virus is passed by an individual a day or two before they become “strongly” suspect of having the problem we are 4 to 5 days into the infection, or further (that is because NO ONE KNOWS at this point all the specifics of how this virus acts. There are NO “patient controlled, double blind studies” on this contagion because it is NEW and there are NO Experts, no matter how credentialed they maintain themselves to be because it is NEW and, therefore, UNKNOWN. If one applies a little Medical Thinking to this virus and the extremely limited information gathered thus far and look at the “Puney”(sp) French study that used a combination of Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin and got good results, one might think this is, at least a viable answer. However, the available antivirals seem to work better when started very EARLY in the infection and azithromycin is NOT an antiviral but a long half-life antibiotic and has likely little effect on the virus but is more likely working on the “ASSOCIATED PNEUMONIA” that has come into play because the diagnosis is so far behind the curve. The better consideration, in my opinion, is to consider the Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine a “Prophylaxis against this virus, much like this class of meds has been used for more than a half century against Malaria. The safety is actually quite good since there has been a huge test run called the War in Vietnam where our Military was given this weekly to prevent malaria. The CDC has recommendations for its use on their website specific to travelers to areas where this is endemic. I recoil at the hysteria that has been created and the “blind” following of a few that declare themselves “expert” in an area that has NO KNOWN experts. This could go on further but I am sure those that have read this far are already bored. In addition to my Medical degree I am a thesis (or 2 Research Papers) short of a Masters Degree in Microbiology.

• Wes Rhinier says:

Thank You for your insight. It is greatly appreciated.

3. Exring says:

Mr. Rhinier, Thank you. I have a Dr. on YouTube that very nicely lays out the statistical “nightmare” that has gripped Our Country. It is about an hour long and you may have already seen it but, if not, give it the time. He is professional and is familiar with reading and interpreting Scientific Papers. I agree with his perspective and analysis. https://youtu.be/d6MZy-2fcBw if this doesn’t work take the period out of the link between “u” and “b”. It is how this was listed so I just passed it on.