Picking up from yesterday’s video rebutting the latest media campaign of “It’s not going to be that bad” opinion pieces from ‘experts’, Chris investigates the cost of being wrong in these predictions.
This is important because government and health care response policies are being influenced by these experts. If we pick the wrong policies, millions of lives and trillions in wealth are at stake.
Chris walks through the two main competing theories on the pandemic’s projected impact and highlights the merits and shortcomings of each. In his opinion, the logic underlying one is much stronger than the other.
In many very real ways, our destiny is tied to the path we choose.
Maybe you’ve got the “Wuhan Coronavirus.” Maybe you’re just afraid of getting it. Either way, staying at home and self-quarantining doesn’t mean you can’t have a good time – or make money.
Something we believe about gun-owning Americans: They tend to have a lot more imagination than the average bear. I mean, why else are you prepping? Because you can visualize a future where it might be necessary to have enough food, water, weapons, and ammo (we’ve seen a huge increase in the sales of 40 cal, 223, 7.62x39mm and even 12 gauge shotgun shells since the outbreak) to sit things out for the long haul. So it probably won’t take a lot of convincing to get you to watch these apocalyptic movies that will remind you why you prep while you shelter in place.
We like these movies as much as the next guy. So we’d love to hear your take on the common thread that runs through all of them, which are better than others and why and how they impact your view of prepping in the 21st Century.
Most people are familiar with the tale of the Ant And The Grasshopper, an ancient fable about a grasshopper who spends the fruitful months of spring and summer in idle recreation, dancing and playing carelessly while the industrious ant works tirelessly to prepare for what he knows will be a harsh winter. In many versions the Grasshopper harasses the Ant, criticizing him for wasting so much time on work when he could be out enjoying himself in the sun.
Eventually, winter does arrive and it is as brutal as the Ant had predicted. Not surprisingly, the carefree Grasshopper finds himself cold and starving with no supplies, begging the Ant to share the bounty he had worked so hard to procure over the summer. The Ant refuses, telling the Grasshopper he can “dance the winter away, now….”
What many people do not know is that there is also a decidedly more socialist version of The Ant And The Grasshopper written by a French poet named Jean de La Fontaine in which the Ant is portrayed as the bad guy, and his industry as “mean spirited”. And here in this little fable we have represented one of the greatest conflicts of our modern era:
Should the people that refuse to work and prepare be bailed out and saved from their laziness and foolishness? Or should they be allowed to suffer for their mistakes? And if they are bailed out, should they be bailed out by the very people they used to mock for working so hard; the people they used to mock for seeing the danger ahead?
“We have more than enough supplies until the lockdown is over in two weeks…”
This is a serious disconnect from reality. It shows that these people are hyperfocused on the virus alone, they actually believe the rumors that the virus will be gone as spring floats in and they are completely oblivious to the economic collapse that is happening while the pandemic is developing. They really do think this will all be over before their meager supply of goods from Costco runs out.
These are the people I feel bad for, because at least they were trying. These are not the grasshoppers, they have simply been misled.
Mark my words, give it a month or two and these people are going to start swarming in droves like locusts. They are vicious narcissists, their pride has been damaged and they are out to prove that even though preppers were right, we are still wrong because now we are going to be forced to feed the same grasshoppers that used to tell us our prepping was pointless. That will teach us!
Of course, I don’t think they comprehend the measure of response from the ants. Many of us plan to fight back, and frankly we do not care who our opponent is or how well equipped they are. If you come to pirate our livelihood and labor and claim it as your property, then we plan to take as many grasshoppers down as possible in the process.
My suggestion to the grasshoppers? Learn how to plant and farm quick, because you are not going to get anything from us for free, and trying will only start a war. Maybe, if you ask nicely, we’ll even teach you how to provide for yourselves.
The following information is from a front line ER doctor using the handle of ‘nawlinsag’ on a Texas Aggie web site. I’ve included the link below. I’ve also included the complete text of his post in full in hopes medical professionals and lay people could get the most benefit from his observations of the course of COVID-19 in a small front line Louisiana hospital.
Short form: This is not the flu. It is a horror show of death and disablement that is crowding out all other medical care including an immediate downgrade of life saving cardiac care. Only on in seven people put on ventalators in this hospital is surviving, and then only after 10-t0-12 days of ventalator support.
I just spent an hour typing a long post that erased when I went to change the title so I apologize to the grammar and spelling police. This one will not be proofread and much shorter.
I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.
Clinical course is predictable. 2-11 days after exposure (day 5 on average) flu like symptoms start. Common are fever, headache, dry cough, myalgias(back pain), nausea without vomiting, abdominal discomfort with some diarrhea, loss of smell, anorexia, fatigue.
Day 5 of symptoms- increased SOB, and bilateral viral pneumonia from direct viral damage to lung parenchyma.
Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours.
81% mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, 5% critical.
Patient presentation is varied. Patients are coming in hypoxic (even 75%) without dyspnea. I have seen Covid patients present with encephalopathy, renal failure from dehydration, DKA. I have seen the bilateral interstitial pneumonia on the xray of the asymptomatic shoulder dislocation or on the CT’s of the (respiratory) asymptomatic polytrauma patient. Essentially if they are in my ER, they have it. Seen three positive flu swabs in 2 weeks and all three had Covid 19 as well. Somehow this ***** has told all other disease processes to get out of town.
China reported 15% cardiac involvement. I have seen covid 19 patients present with myocarditis, pericarditis, new onset CHF and new onset atrial fibrillation. I still order a troponin, but no cardiologist will treat no matter what the number in a suspected Covid 19 patient. Even our non covid 19 STEMIs at all of our facilities are getting TPA in the ED and rescue PCI at 60 minutes only if TPA fails.
Imagine an alien race of beings contacting Earth with a demand that we have to destroy all nuclear weapons with a specified time frame. If we did not comply, they have the ability to detonate any or all nuclear warheads to achieve the same goal. I suspect our world “leaders” would need an example detonation before making their decision.
I doubt many people are familiar with the terms synbio or CRISPR. I also doubt that many people know that biological weapons have been developed by world governments for the same reasons as nuclear weapons. “But we have the vaccine if we deploy a biological agent against a foreign government” is the fail safe which gives some rationality to this insane policy.
It does not matter if I believe that HB-19 is manmade or not. It is here and it has shown the world what one RNA virus can do to the best laid plans of mice and men. If this is a manmade virus, whoever comes up with the vaccine is probably the one who did make it.
But let’s move on. What about the next one? This is not idle speculation but an eventuality. How can we “flatten the curve” to reduce the next one?
All world governments must destroy their biological weapons and laboratories. Immediately.
The consequences of releasing a biological agent (accidentally or intentionally) must be defined. We can never have another incident like what was done in New York’s subways.
We need to educate people. As a nation, our people do not understand biological science and medicine. Imagine if everyone had to pass an EMT 1 course in order to graduate high school. A rudimentary understanding of medical sanitation practices would have gone a long way to minimizing this pandemic.
Let’s start using current events to build a better future.
All through February and into early March, the media was awash with headlines that scoffed “Don’t worry — it’s just the flu”.
While most of those news outlets have pivoted and are now more likely to print sensationally fearful articles (the same who accused our data driven approach as “fear mongering” just weeks ago), we’re seeing a new campaign now of opinion pieces by credentialed ‘experts’ claiming the virus may not be as bad as initially expected.
In today’s video, Chris goes through a number of these recent articles and addresses them point by point.
As empirically-driven thinkers, at PeakProsperity.com we don’t shy away from a challenge to our conclusions. We’re of the mind that the best facts should win, and if the data changes, our analysis will change with it.
But Chris doesn’t find much in these recent ‘expert’ opinions besides false hope. Or poor logic. Which just goes to underscore why we need to continue thinking for ourselves here. So many of our “leaders” and “experts” failed to warn and prepare us for this pandemic, for reasons ranging from politics to incompetence. So keep educating yourself. And we’ll keep producing our daily updates and analysis to aid your understanding.
The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated. Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.
In a span of approximately 90 days, 18,634 people have died worldwide from COVID-19. If we multiply that number by a factor of 4 to match the time frame for the swine flu, we see a much lower number of deaths from the current pandemic. So why all of the panic and government action to stop the current spread of this disease?
There is no vaccine for HB-19 and there will not be one for several months at the earliest.
There is no pre-existing immunity in the population but there was some immunity in the older generations for swine flu.
The R0 value for swine flu was 1.4-1.6. Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28.
No one believes that China and Iran are accurately reporting the number of cases and deaths. The reports from China indicate a much larger number of dead than reported. Satellite photos show mass graves being constructed in Iran. Both of these are great fuel to inspire fear.
While the above information does not constitute enough to warrant the actions taken across the world, we have to ask why approximately 38% of the world’s population is under some type of lockdown to prevent the spread of this contagion. For me the answer was and still is exponential growth. Other concerns are the antibody dependent enhancement of this virus when a secondary infection occurs and the high probability for a mutation. The symptoms expressed in the Louisiana outbreak seem to indicate a mutation which involves blood in the lungs causing red foaming at the mouth. It also seems to impact younger people more than the regular S and L strains.
But the bottom line is simple: there are two sides in this issue which is a major cause of division (at least in this country). One side considers COVID-19 to be a major threat to our people, economy and medical infrastructure. The other side considers this to be comparable to the H1N1 swine flu epidemic here and/or a means to infringe upon our liberty. Fortunately for this particular issue, we will know shortly how this disease will impact our lives in both the short and long term.
I will say something that we should consider. When our focus is directed exclusively on one topic, something else is being manipulated or manufactured. In this case, it appears that Iran may be that issue which may involve the next war. I pray that we use this time wisely and determine what is really important in our lives.
Governments around the world are struggling to answer: What’s the bigger priority, saving lives or the economy?
Lots of strong opinions on both sides and not lot a lot of agreement (yet). China-style lockdowns are hard for most leaders to swallow, as they result in gut-wrentching economic losses, mass job layoffs, and supply shortages. But keeping people at work or returning them too soon risks higher infection rates, likely overwhelming the health care system for *everyone*, likely resulting in a lot more avoidable deaths.
No matter the path chosen, reducing the rate of spread of the pandemic is something that benefits everyone. In today’s video, Chris spends time highlighting a number of personal behaviors, treatment programs, and national policies that show promise on this front.
We all have our part to play in that great call to slow covid-19 in its tracks as best we can.