There are three reasons why China and Russia are dumping US Treasuries.
- They believe US Treasuries are a bad investment.
- They are dumping them before the war starts.
- Both reasons 1 and 2.
Based on the results of Tim Geithner’s trip to China last week, our financial credibility is not too high in their viewpoint. I believe China will sit on the sidelines for the first part of the war. Based on the Russian graph, it looks like they are close to achieving their goal. For whatever reasons treasuries are being dumped, you can be sure that the American people will suffer the consequences.
Today’s TIC data confirmed what Zero Hedge readers have now known for quite some time: namely that foreigners are selling US paper. And while we have used contemporaneous Custody Account data from the Fed to present that in the past 7 weeks foreigners have sold a record amount of bonds, we now get confirmation via TIC that in November the selling continued, especially at the biggest non-Fed holder of US paper, China, which saw its holdings down to $1,132.6 billion, the lowest in the past year. Yet where the selling is just relentless is in Russia, which has quite demonstratively slashed its US Treasury holdings in half in the past year from $176 billion to under $80 billion. Putin is not happy, and is not afraid to show it.