Those of us who watch cable news are under a constant barrage of people opining as to whether Donald Trump will get the magic 1,237 delegates that he needs by the time that the Republican convention convenes. He currently has about 880, or about seventy percent of the delegates he needs.
With his win in New York, Mr. Trump effectively made it impossible for Senator Cruz to gain the number of delegates needed. Governor Kasich had been mathematically eliminated before the New York primary. When the math indicated that Kasich could not win, Senator Cruz encouraged him to withdraw. Now that the math indicates he can’t win, he is talking out of the other side of his mouth. The reality is that, at this point, both Cruz and Kasich are holding on in hopes of a convention revolt against Trump.
Unless the leadership of the Republican Party are complete idiots or want Hillary Clinton as the next president, they must coalesce with Donald Trump. This will be a bitter pill for some to swallow, and, yes he perhaps cannot win in the general election, but, Ted Cruz certainly can’t win.
Mr. Trump will win the lion’s share of the delegates in the primaries which remain in the northeastern region. I have lived and worked in the northeast and by and large the people are different there – not better or worse – just different. When one goes into a restaurant for an evening meal in Pittsburg, Wilmington, or Providence, amongst other cities, one will typically see an entire family sitting around the table with adults drinking a beer or mixed drink. This is not the typical behavior of Southern Baptists and other evangelicals in the south who abhor, at least publically, the consumption of alcohol – especially with children present. Also, the views on social issues are light years apart between northeasterners and southerners. For these reasons, Senator Cruz is about as popular in the northeast as grandma’s tapioca pudding.
Whether Mr. Trump arrives at the convention with 1,237 delegates or 1,175 should be a moot point. He will arrive with millions more votes and a much larger following. To deny Trump the nomination, whether within the rules or not, would be political suicide for the Republican Party and possible cause its demise.
Mr. Trump is not a good looser – people who typically don’t lose are rarely congenial after losing. It would be unrealistic to believe that Mr. Trump would merely walk out of the convention and whistle a happy tune back to New York—it won’t happen. There will be hundreds if not thousands of Trump supporters at the convention – if there votes are ignored by a second or third ballot win for someone else – they and their vote will go home.
Trump has a chance of winning a national presidential election… If he selects a good vice-president nominee, like Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico, he can encourage Hispanics to vote for him. Yes, I know Governor Martinez has criticized Mr. Trump, but, other than his most ardent supporters, who hasn’t? Politicians kiss and make up – that is the nature of the game. If Governor Martinez has a desire to become the first female president – running with Trump is a no-brainer. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina would also be a beneficial choice who could bring blacks into the Republican tent.
Mr. Trump isn’t really a Republican – he is a pragmatist who isn’t influenced by party loyalties – he sees a problem and tackles the issue. Some people don’t like Trump’s demeanor or choice of words but people are so sick of political double-speak that they are willing to forgive most anything to elect a person who might make a difference in their lives and our nation.
Mr. Trump has some blotches and blemishes, but compared to Hillary Clinton he looks like Mr. Clean. Time will tell how all this shakes out. At least once Trump releases his Wall Street speeches Clinton will probably release hers.
Have a good week. Bill Shuey is a freelance writer from Murphy, NC.