For all those who spend time running what-if scenarios, I thought I would share a few of my favorites:
1. Election Rejection – Scytl is a Spanish company chosen by the Federal Government to tally the results of the general elections in November – the outsourcing of election tallying to a non-US company is unprecedented. The allegations that Scytl is owned by George Soros, and therefore is in a position to “rig” the election results, has already been made and repeated many times – I will not address that question here, although I believe it is a valid concern. My question is this: What if Scytl were to go under or be “financially compromised” just prior to the election? Would the election still be held as scheduled, and could we trust the results which Scytl reported? What if the “discovery” that Scytl (or even just a handful of key Scytl employees) was compromised came days or weeks *after* the election? Regardless of who is reported as “the winner” on November 6th, we face the real possibility that US voters could reject the legitimacy of the election outcome for a variety of reasons – how will the American public respond in such a scenario?
2. Food Fight – Drought conditions are reported to be worsening in the US and other parts of the world, not getting better. When the reality of increased costs at the supermarket collide with the droves of people who are “running out of unemployment benefits” as their 99-week entitlement expires, will the combined pressures of shortages of food and money be the impetus for protests and riots, just in time for election season?
3. War for what? – Right now, the US stands on the precipice of “hot conflict” (open combat, whether declared as a war or not) in a number of places – Syria, Iran, North Korea, South China Sea, and on our Border with Mexico, among others. How will the American public respond to the present administration if it fails to prevent another war? Will it be a case of circle the wagons, and “don’t change leaders in the middle of a fight”, or will this baby go out with the bath-water in a natural case of backlash by a polity which is sick and tired of war after 12 years of continuous conflict. How many protests will we see against renewed conflict? Will wee see another ‘Kent State Moment’?
4. Oil Spoil – whether or not the US acts preemptively against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the real possibility exists that Iran might decide to close the Straights of Hormuz because of the US-led sanctions. What would the results be of a substantial constriction in the oil supply be? Obviously, there would be a price spike, but what about the rest of the economic consequences? Increased oil prices would gouge into the GDP of most every nation, especially the US, since the oscillations in fuel price/availability, reballancing of total fuel demand (oil, electric, natural gas, etc.) as a consequence of oil issues, and run-through to other economic sectors (particularly food and other consumer commodities) in terms of production and distribution.
5. Economic Collapse – The economies of Europe and the US are all crippled and barely sustaining, regardless of what the media say. Fact is, the crisis is as much a case of bruised confidence as they are of difficult economic and financial conditions. Any number of events could push us (US/UK/Europe) beyond the tipping point: All of our governments are dangerously over-burdened with debt; all of the global banks, and most of the national/commercial banks are dangerously exposed to excessive leverage and under-reporting of risk, in addition to the systematic dangers of interbank “fixing” of LIBOR and “certain commodities” such as gold. Presently, we are witnessing the opening salvos of the death-battle in the international banking community, the outcome of which is certain to cost many investors their life’s savings. The big question is not so much which banks will survive the battle, if any; rather it is “what will people do when they discover that they have ‘lost everything’ “? large masses of people with nothing left to loose will do scary things, and are not typically amenable to reason, even if they will be susceptible to regrets at some later time.
6. Non-Nuclear Winter – With the de-commissioning of numerous nuclear power plants in Europe in the past two years, the costs of electricity have been “skyrocketing” across the continent. “Green” sources such as wind, solar, and geo-thermal have been found incapable of satisfying Europe’s electric power demands, even with the record-setting mild conditions of last winter (most of Europe and the UK heat with Electricity, not oil or gas). As a result, Europe has been relying more and more heavily upon natural gas to generate electricity. But Europe is profoundly “natural gas poor”…it has to import, via pipelines, nearly all of it’s natural gas from Russia and the Baltics, and the capacity of these pipelines is already stressed to near capacity. Additionally, there are barely enough natural gas generation facilities throughout Europe to satisfy demand, therefore electricity is being transmitted further from generation source to end-user, which is beginning to stress their power distribution grid. Even without a supply-side disruption (loss of a pipeline or generation facility), a colder-than-average winter in Europe could result in peak demand which exceeds generation and/or distribution capacity – the results would be blackouts, and the need for “electricity rationing”. Imagine the many deaths, negative economic impact, and potential for disruption and displacement of populations if portions of Europe were to “go dark” for any reason.
7. The Perfect Storm – All of the Above
As a risk analyst, these are the things which I presently spend a lot of time war-gaming… my conclusions are not the topic of happy conversation, but I have never been one to put my head in the sand.
Be well,
LT
~Those who abuse Liberty, do so at their own peril!
