by Sam Culper
A couple months ago, I introduced everyone to my BICC/E analytical method. (You can learn it here.) This method looks at adversarial realities, and then charts a way forward for developing potential COAs. It’s a tool that informs us of the operating picture, and allows us to anticipate and plan for adversarial action. BICC/E stands for: Behavior, Intent, Capabilities, and Consequences/Effects. It’s the way we survey what’s happening, what an adversary wants to happen, if the adversary can achieve those goals, and then examines the second- and third-order effects along with the acceptability of those outcomes. Let’s apply a very basic BICC/E analysis to what’s going on in Connecticut (the Dispatch BICC/E analysis will be more in-depth).
Behavior.
The Connecticut (CT) state government and law enforcement agencies are concerned about citizens’ defiance over the new gun registration law. The law was found by a federal judge to not violate the Second Amendment. Roughly 55,000 residents registered their weapons in accordance with the law, while up to an estimated 300,000 did not (a more conservative estimate is 100,000). The state government introduced an amnesty period for the potentially 300,000 new felons to register their weapons to avoid punishment. As of last week, CT law enforcement (LE) and/or the governor’s office drafted a new letter targeting non-compliant gun owners; however, the letter has not been sent out.
