We’ve previously covered that the four factors of valuable intelligence information are timely, accurate, specific, and predictive. Once we’ve collected information and analyzed it to create a finished intelligence product, we absolutely must present that information (which is timely, accurate, specific, and/or predictive) in a clear and concise manner. What good is producing great intelligence if the impact or scope of our message is lost through poor communication?
One of the ways we effectively communicate is by assigning probabilities or levels of confidence in our work. In addition to clearly communicating the likelihood of an event, or the confidence we have in our assessment, assigning probabilities also allows you, the analyst, to cover yourself in case you’re wrong. We will likely want to avoid using words like always (will) or never (won’t).
Because at the heart of intelligence analysis is creating knowledge – synthesizing pieces of separate or loosely-related information to create a deeper understanding of an organization or individual, or to project future activities of the adversary – we generally encounter situations where the information we have is fuzzy or conflicting, so our confidence in our assessment likewise suffers. To quote my old, well-respected section chief, “You don’t always have to be right, but you can never be dead wrong.” There will always be things that we know we know, things that we know we don’t know, and things that we don’t know we don’t know, which means that there will be times that you are wrong. Just don’t be dead wrong.
