According to CDC director Tom Frieden, the ‘window of opportunity’ for stopping the spread of Ebola is closing rapidly. In July, as the virus surged across west African borders, Frieden downplayed its potential to reach U.S. shores. “It is not a potential of Ebola spreading widely in the U.S.,” claimed Frieden in a preemptive effort to prevent panic. “That is not in the cards.”
The cards, apparently, have been reshuffled, as Frieden now joins a growing chorus of concerned officials around the world. “This is not just a problem for West Africa, it’s not just a problem for Africa,” Frieden said last week. “It’s a problem for the world, and the world needs to respond.”
In the United States, hospitals are quietly preparing Ebola infection wards and procedures for what many believe is the inevitable arrival of the virus on U.S. shores.
Mathematical models performed by numerous researchers suggest that anywhere from 20,000 to 100,000 people globally could contract the virus by December of this year.
Researcher Yaneer Bar-Yam, whose models predicted the rise of the Arab Spring just weeks before it actually happened, has been modeling viral outbreaks since 2006. In a report published in conjunction with MIT and the New England Complex Systems Institute, Bar-Yam and colleagues developed a host-pathogen model to predict the spread of emergent diseases, including Ebola, in evolving ecosystems.
The results are nothing short of terrifying as depicted in the video produced by the NECSI showing how the Ebola virus originating in West Africa might spread:
This is almost as valuable as the stuff you have to pick up while walking your dog.
Anyone can make a mathematical model that will do anything they want it to. This was probably made by a couple of assistant CRT wipers playing around at the MIT lab after hours.
Notice how they went public on the web with “Worse Case Scenario” instead of “Worst . . .” I doubt if their math is as good as their English.
And, if I”m dead wrong and these are two Nobel winners in mathematics with second degrees in epidemiology, then the fact remains that (1) this is a worst case scenario, which is probably the same for just about any disease that begins at the same location on earth. Infectious diseases, it should be fairly obvious, all have a very similar pattern of spreading, if you look at their worst case, ie no prevention interventions, and (2) they give Zero information about the nature of their model, what its assumptions are.
Notice also that NO timeline is given. Does the above spread complete itself over a period of 5 centuries, or 5 minutes?
NO professional would dare to identify himself by name with such a presentation. These guys were hacking around and said “OK, now let’s see what happens if we assume a 99% chance of infection if you come within a mile of anyone w/Ebola, and that the incubation period shortens to 10 minutes.” Bingo this video came up. Then they said “Hey, let’s put this on the web and see if it goes . . . literally? . . . VIRAL, and get our names out there to millions of people, just for the fun of it. Let’s see how many hits we get from the mathematically illiterate dunces out there who take this seriously.”
The useful information value of this little video showing the results of a “mathematical model” is NOT zero. It’s much less than zero. It misinforms and needlessly scares some people for no valid reason. This is a prank by two low-level, relatively incompetent pranksters.
I added more information to this article. It is a simulation but Yaneer Bar-Yam has credibility. A worst case scenario would be no green left on the map.
You can no more have less than zero information than more than 100%. As for needlessly scaring some people, I disagree. As does the CDC, WHO and the administration which is sending 3000 troops to Africa.
1. Fear sells.
2. Most if not all, of the elites WANT an extinction level event. Although which one of them is going to dig ditches and clean toilets if that happens, I don’t think they’ve thought that out.
3. If the virus has mutated and is now airborne, even if it’s not still 90% mortality (as it was in it’s initial appearance) the breakdown in society.. “the apocalypse after the apocalypse” will kill more people than the virus itself. Especially in areas where dependence is the norm.
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