Al Qaeda or the Islamic State could launch a mass-casualty attack on U.S. soil if the Obama administration does not alter its current strategy to defeat the terrorist groups, according to a new report that lays out recommendations for a revised U.S. counterterrorism policy.
The report from the American Enterprise Institute estimated that, under President Obama’s current strategy and military and diplomatic efforts, the terrorist groups could control “at least twice as much territory and population—in Iraq, Yemen, North Africa (especially Libya), the Sinai, and Syria—and with an army of regular and irregular fighters at least twice as large within two years.” Those safe havens would allow al Qaeda and the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) to plot more attacks against the United States and the West.
“As these conditions worsen, al Qaeda, ISIS, or both will carry out a mass-casualty attack against the US: it is a question not of if, but rather of when,” the report said. “Even more worrisome is our assessment that, if we fail to stop the extremists from taking territory and undermining states like Pakistan, al Qaeda or ISIS will obtain weapons of mass destruction, and then it will be too late to act.”
