The Shape of Things to Come

by Robert Gore

Historical Natural Gas Prices - Natural Gas Price History Chart

Take a look at this natural gas price chart. Natural gas made its all-time high in 2008 at just above $13 per million British Thermal Units (BTUs). With the advent of natural gas fracking, money had poured in as the price rose, leading to an excess of supply. By September 2009, exacerbated by the financial crisis, the price had collapsed to below $3 per million BTUs. Since then, it has had two bounces to $6, but its nearby future closed Friday at $2.72 on the Nymex, and spot natural gas can be had for less than $1 at the most productive US natural gas field, the Marcellus Shale. At those prices nobody is making money in natural gas. Producer Quicksilver Resources filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in March, and much larger Samson Resources has scheduled a bankruptcy filing for September 15.

This is not an analysis of the natural gas market, but rather an explanation of why it’s price graph will be the shape of things to come, not just for natural resources, but for manufacturing and equities. At first, natural gas’s price rose even as a flood of capital was expanding production, precursor to what occurred in oil and other natural resources several years later. In a free market, speculative capital would have been attracted to the possibilities opened up by natural gas fracking. In a world in which central banks have for decades supplied more debt at cheaper interest rates than what would have prevailed in a free market, that flow of capital was amplified. Consequently, so too was the number of natural gas rigs put in operation, the amount of natural gas produced, and the subsequent crash in price. The same can be said for the progressions that came later in oil, iron ore, aluminum, coal, copper, and other extractive industries.

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