There’s a sizable number of those in the Patriot community who believe that restoring Liberty will come to violence and, of those, a great number believe that an insurgency is the way forward.
Insurgencies are often how the disaffected few, be they religious, ethnic, or political/ideological groups, respond to the perceived tyranny of the many. But the track record of insurgencies is fairly weak; less than 40% of them have succeeded since 1945. According to Max Boot, insurgent/guerrilla-expert-extraordinaire, of the 443 insurgencies since 1775, only 25% of them were successful. And since 1945 over 50% of government counterinsurgencies have succeeded. On its face, that doesn’t say much for the likely success rate of a nationwide insurgency.
What’s much more likely is that we see fragmented secession movements, backed up with credible threats of force on behalf of burgeoning insurgencies. This is what I see as a much larger trend on a longer time frame, not what’s right around the corner. We could easily be another ten years out from this scenario, barring any catastrophic events until we get there. I think this nation’s current trajectory — the Magic Marxist Muslim and all — still gives us three to five years, at least. (When people are expecting eventual calamity, it’s easy for them to overly simplify things and expect it to happen tomorrow, which is what we see with many in the Patriot-Prepper community. The times are getting dire, but not that dire.)
So we have some time to get acquainted with an academic understanding of insurgencies, what makes them successful, and which model presents the highest likelihood of success.
