There will be a world wide economic collapse. Anyone who disagrees either does not have the intellectual capacity to analyze the impact of the credit derivative “market” or they are suffering from a Pollyanna delusion. So what would be the catalyst for the beginning of the collapse?
David DeGerolamo
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Glencore Implodes: Stock Plunges Most Ever, CDS Blow Out To Record Up On Equity Wipeout Fears
Just last Thursday we asked whether Goldman was “preparing to sacrifice the next Lehman“, by which of course we meant the world’s largest commodity trading counterparty, Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore which just two weeks ago unveiled an unprecedented “doomsday” capital raising and deleveraging plan which, in retrospect, was not enough.
The punchline of Goldman’s report was that if commodity prices drop 5%, or even stay where they are, then Glencore’s investment grade rating – the most critical foundation of its entire trading operation where a downgrade to junk would launch a collateral and margin-call waterfall cascade a la AIG – would be lost. From Goldman:
Glencore’s trading business relies heavily on short-term credit to finance commodity deals and its financing costs would increase if it were to lose its Investment Grade credit rating. In addition, it could even lose some counterparties due to increased counterparty risk.
As we added on Thursday, “what a junking of Glencore would do, is start a collateral demand waterfall cascade that the cash-strapped company simply would not be able to sustain.” So having laid out the strawman, Goldman next, very conveniently, explains just what would take for the Investment Grade trap to slam shut: “it would only take a c.5% fall in spot commodities prices for concerns about its credit rating to resurface.”
