1- War: Urgency, Justification, and Sustainability Bullets
The key points in Christopher Granville’s TS Lombard analysis that sit at the intersection of Geopolitics and Portfolio Management are:
- Military Unpreparedness: The Ukraine war has revealed that the defense industrial base of the US and its military allies is unfit for high-intensity territorial warfare against peer adversaries.
- Shell Shortage: Biden saying: “We’re running low [on shells]” ensures the necessary political impulse for sustained increases in defense spending1
- Humanitarian Need: The rearmament investment theme is supported along the way by the humanitarian disaster of the war’s protractedness2
- Cold War 2.0: The mindset created from this experience will take on a life of its own. In doing so, the legacy of persistent threat fresh in everyone’s minds will serve as a driver of policy for years to come.3 Skirmish wars and tests of opponent resolve are part of a deglobalization process under mercantilistic rules.
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