by Jerry Pournelle
The only way to defeat the Caliphate is to defeat it, conquer its territories and distribute its territories to locals who do not believe they have been chosen to convert the world by the sword. The only way to do that is to engage the Caliphate on its own territories; to attack. Defense, no matter how successful, will not do it. Yes. Containment eventually brought down the Soviet Union without a central war, because the Allied efforts after WWI were too little and abandoned too soon, and after WWE II we did not understand the chiliastic objectives of Marxism until Central War was such a frightening prospect that we dared not undertake it; but we are not at that stage with ISIS – yet.
When the Caliphate first declared war on us, I warned that we should take the threat seriously. At that time one Airborne Division supplemented with naval air support and a couple of squadrons of Warthogs operating from Kurdish territory could have eliminated IDSIDS in a relatively brief campaign. The territory could then have been partitioned between Kurds, Iraq Sunni, and Iraq Shia according to wishes of the inhabitants; no permanent US occupation would have been needed. The costs would be moderate and the US casualties low.
That wasn’t done. As time went on and the Caliphate grew, I pointed out that the mission was still vital, but the costs were rising. They grew past needing two heavy infantry divisions and all the A-10’s (including building a base for them). I would estimate now that it will take two heavy infantry divisions, two regiments of Marines or armored cavalry, all of the A-10’s, and some of the USAF air supremacy force to protect the warthogs against surface to air missiles; their presence ought to be enough to deter the intervention of Iranian air jets against the Warthogs, which cannot possibly defend themselves against air-to-air fighters regardless of quality.
h/t WRSA
