Ah, the mists are clearing…
We see…less than a 50/50 chance of Hillary being the Democratic candidate in November owing to legal troubles currently known and yet to be revealed. We see…Bernie Sander’s chance of being the nominee as zero, much like the tax rate he proposes for most Americans. Which is why we predict a 55% likelihood of…of… Joe Biden topping the ticket.
We see… Donald Trump running as a third party candidate after he is denied the GOP nomination at an ugly brokered convention. The actual GOP candidate will either be Marco Rubio or, more likely, Mitt Romney – simply because Mitt won’t be covered head-to-toe in feces flung by other Republican political opponents during the primaries.
And because of this three party dynamic, we see…we see… a Democrat win for Joe “God love ya, what am I saying?” Biden and Elizabeth “The tepee VP” Warren.
Obviously, we hope we’re wrong – but this is what the spirits are telling us. Then again, the only spirits we can afford aren’t exactly top shelf brands.
I think the prognostication leading up to November may be correct, but not the final.
Trump will likely get 30-40% of the popular vote even as an independent, and probably 20% of the electoral college votes. It is unlikely anyone will meet the 270 needed.
As the Founders intended, the election will be determined by the House of Representatives, with our next president being Ryan (I say only partially in jest).