And yet another baffle with absolute and unbelievable BS economic number is out, this time the Empire Fed index which magically spiked from -1.43 to 7.84 on expectations of a 0.00 print. We say magically, because besides the headline number, virtually everything else was down! To wit: New Orders down, Shipments down, Unfilled Orders down, Delivery Time down, Inventories down, Number of Employees down, Avg Workweek down, should we continue? The Empire Fed report admits as much: “The general business conditions index—the most comprehensive of the survey’s measures—rose nine points to 7.8. Nevertheless, most other indicators in the survey fell.” Almost as if the NY Fed apologized for having to make up headline numbers.
For those following the labor market, here is the punchline: “Labor market conditions worsened, with the index for number of employees dropping to zero and the average workweek index retreating ten points to -11.3.” In fact, the average workweek was the lowest since July 2011. Good thing that by now not even the most hardened permabulls pretend any actual fundamental underlying data matter. So let’s just assume that the weather in June caused the NY Fed headline to diverge from all the underlying data and call it a day.