Steve Bannon asked me to step you through it. I’ll do that and tell you how this is validated using independent methods and also why VAERS was deliberately set up to make all vaccines look safe.
URF = VAERS underreporting factor. This is the ratio (# events that actually happen/# events reported in VAERS). So if VAERS has 10 events and the URF=41, then it means 410 events are likely to have happened, but only 10 events were reported to VAERS.
This is the data we use in our computation:
- Known rate of anaphylaxis from JAMA paper published on March 8, 2021: 2.47 per 10,000 doses (A)
- Number of people who had at least one dose before April 1: 97.5M (see below) (B)
- Number of anaphylaxis cases on dose 1 in VAERS before April 1: (see below) (C)
- Today’s number of US deaths in VAERS: 9623 (Jan 5, 2021) (D)
- Largest number of deaths reported to VAERS in prior years: 223 (in 1994) (E). You can see this on the same red box page on OpenVAERS by mousing over each year.
- Number of deaths in VAERS in the US that mention COVID19 as a symptom: 2087 (F)
To compute the underreporting factor (URF), we solve the equation A=(C*URF)/B. This just says that “the rate in the clinical trial’ = “the rate in VAERS” (adjusted by the URF.
This means URF=(A*B)/C = 2.47/10000 * 97500000/583 = 41.3
To compute the excess deaths, we use deaths = (D-2*E)*URF = (9623-2*223)*41.3 = 379,010. The reason we took out 2*E is that we are looking for excess deaths and since people are seen twice, it’s conservative to double the total number of deaths in a previous year.
While it is possible that some of these 379K excess deaths could have been caused by COVID, doctors are very unlikely to report a COVID death in VAERS since everyone agrees that the vaccines do not cause COVID. Doctors don’t want to pollute the VAERS database with unrelated events and most doctors don’t want to report to VAERS because they don’t want to make the vaccines look dangerous: doing so would make them look bad for recommending the vaccine to their patients.
But to be conservative, anytime COVID19 is mentioned in the symptom field, let’s assume that the patient really died from COVID rather than “with” COVID19. This removes F*URF = 2,087 deaths * 41.3 = 86,193.
We are left with an estimated 292,817 deaths caused by the vaccine using VAERS.
Using 12 other methods, we estimate a death toll of 150,000 or more.
Therefore, 150,000 is a high confidence estimate whereas 300,000 is likely closer to the actual number.