by Sam Culper III
For the benefit of quasi-academic exercise, let’s assume that the absolute worst happens in Connecticut (CT): a federal invasion. (Although the likelihood is low right now, it could be a plausible scenario in another state for the government of tomorrow.) If I was tasked to analyze and wargame that scenario, my initial key assumptions would be:
a) nothing, surrounding states included, would be able to prevent it;
b) the invasion’s only acceptable outcome is total victory;
c) the invasion would be justified by a credible threat or action of violence; and
d) it would take the form of counterinsurgency (COIN) up front.
Expanding on Key Assumption D, we have two likely invasion models: Iraq and Afghanistan.