Invasion Models in Connecticut

Guerrillamerica

by Sam Culper III

For the benefit of quasi-academic exercise, let’s assume that the absolute worst happens in Connecticut (CT): a federal invasion.  (Although the likelihood is low right now, it could be a plausible scenario in another state for the government of tomorrow.)  If I was tasked to analyze and wargame that scenario, my initial key assumptions would be:

a) nothing, surrounding states included, would be able to prevent it;

b) the invasion’s only acceptable outcome is total victory;

c) the invasion would be justified by a credible threat or action of violence; and

d) it would take the form of counterinsurgency (COIN) up front.

Expanding on Key Assumption D, we have two likely invasion models: Iraq and Afghanistan.

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