One point we’ve been keen on driving home as the war in Syria intensifies is that while the sheer number of combatants and the overt involvement of at least seven world powers certainly means that among the many conflicts raging in the Mid-East, the war in Syria is the fight that matters most for the non-Arab world, it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees.
That is, it’s critical to see the bigger picture here, and that entails understanding how Syria is related to the conflicts raging in Iraq, Yemen, and to a lesser extent, Afghanistan. Iran is determined to expand its regional influence. Tehran is the power broker in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and it’s no coincidence that the Houthis in Yemen are backed by the Iranians and neither is it a coincidence that Iran is rumored to be funneling weapons and money to its old enemy the Taliban in Afghanistan. This is about checking the spread of Sunni extremism and, concurrently, curtailing and diminishing Saudi influence. While Iran and the Taliban make for strange bedfellows (the militants are, after all, Sunni extremists), Tehran is determined to check the spread of Islamic State and with the IRGC, Hezbollah, and the Quds-controlled Shiite militias already fighting ISIS on two fronts (Syria and Iraq), the Ayatollah isn’t particularly thrilled about the prospect of an expanded ISIS presence on its eastern border. Supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan (with whom Iran nearly went to war in 1998), should help to check ISIS gains in the country and has the added benefit of keeping the US off guard which itself speaks to how quickly alliances can change as it was just 12 years ago that Iran assisted the US in picking Taliban and al-Qaeda targets (read more here).
As for ISIS, the official line is that everyone is an enemy. The Taliban are led by “illiterate warlords,” al-Qaeda are “a bunch of donkeys”, the Houthis are heretics as are the Iranians, the Saudis are just plain in the way in Yemen, and everyone else is an infidel. Of course there’s no telling what the group’s leadership really thinks given the support they undoubtedly receive from any number of states governed by “nonbelievers,” but we’ll leave that aside for now.
