In an instant, everything has changed.
For most of history, weapons have been top-down. Rulers tried to monopolize new technologies of violence, giving themselves an advantage over external forces that didn’t have them and their own subjugated populations. Nuclear bombs are emblematic of this historical pattern. Drones are transforming warfare from the bottom up, and will transform the relationship between the rulers and the ruled.
In three years, the Ukraine-Russia war has introduced a dramatic and dynamic new type of war, one that makes much of which has preceded it obsolete.
The numbers are difficult to pin down exactly, but we can make broad guesses based on media reports. Russia and Ukraine each fielded about 100 thousand drones in 2023; ten times that number, or 1 million, in 2024; and intends to field five times that number this year – – 5 million each. Ten million new drones in 2025!
Years ago I was talking to one of my friends from the middle east and he told me about the manufacturing capability of the Chinese. He said the Chinese have these big manufacturing ships. They brought them to the Persian Gulf and could make anything to order right on the ship. All they needed was materials, plans, and specs. Cost would be next to nothing. I mean anything, drones, guns, missiles, ammunition, clothing, or whatever. It brings the war making machine to the front line. Imagine an endless supply of whatever it takes to run a war close to where the action is. That’s the kind of strategic advantage we are up against when WW3 gets going. It’s not going to be grandads WW2 where everything was made at home. So we better get with the program if we are gonna risk WW3. A new way of thinking about the logistics of war is crucial. It reminds me of my dad and his portable reloading station he used for hunting and range ammunition. Dad was a diehard tough as nails marine. He seen a lot of action so thinking back I understand why he did the things he did.