Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong, Part II

I have all of the curves: confirmed Covid-19 cases in America, mortality rate, ratio of active to confirmed cases, currently active cases, recovered cases, etc., etc.

None of it means anything.  At all.

MIT Study.

Just one section of Massachusetts could have more than 100,000 coronavirus cases — many times more than the entire state has identified at this point, according to an MIT-associated study of local sewage.

Biobot Analytics, which is a lab associated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, published research this week that an analysis of sewage from a treatment facility in “a large metropolitan area in the state of Massachusetts” suggested that many more people potentially have the highly contagious disease than tests have confirmed.

“On March 25, the area represented by the sample had approximately 446 confirmed cases of Covid-19,” Biobot researchers wrote Wednesday in a post about their research. “Based on our sewage analysis, we estimate that up to 115,000 people are infected and shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

Biobot, which didn’t respond to requests for comment, didn’t specify where in the state the samples came from.

MIT.  Large metropolitan area.  Probably Boston.

USC Study.

While Los Angeles County has reported a total of 13,816 coronavirus cases, early results from an antibody study conducted with the University of Southern California shows that hundreds of thousands more could have had COVID-19 in the past, officials announced Monday.

So far, 863 L.A. County residents have been tested between April 10 and 14 as part of the study.

The study estimates a prevalence of COVID-19 antibodies in the county to be 4.1%, with a range that could be as low as 2.8% and as high as 5.6%, when you factor in the reliability of the tests.

An estimated 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults at the high end may have been infected at some point before April 9 with COVID-19, suggesting that the number of total people in the county with a past or current infection is 28 to 55 times higher than the number of reported positive cases, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, L.A. County’s public health director said Monday.

“Although I report every day that we have thousands of thousands of people that have tested positive, the serology testing lets us know that we have hundreds of thousands of people that have already developed antibodies to the virus because at some point in time over the last couple of months, they have in fact been infected with COVID-19,” Ferrer said.

Everything you’re being told by the FedGov and StateGov and CountyGov is crap.  I’m a registered professional engineer.  I’ve done science, engineering and mathematical modeling for 40 years.  If I did my work like this my license would have been stripped and I would be in jail.

Bill Buppert at ZeroGov says this.

You won’t find me parsing the nonsensical and shamanesque grotesqueries of Comrades Birx or Fauci or any of the other “government health” frauds at the hilariously contranymic Center for Disease Control; when not chasing the phantoms of gun violence (is hanging rope violence?) or racism or salt, the CDC is yet another government clown posse who couldn’t predict a sunset much less the verities of viral outbreaks.

Me neither.  I’ve said it before.  It has all become a FedGov jobs program for incompetent people who can’t otherwise do real work anywhere else, all controlled by wicked rulers who want to convert America into nanny state socialism with moronic sheeple begging for more and more control over their daily lives.


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1 year ago

p value

1 year ago

So, more voodoo shaman “studies” that say the infection rate for Covid 19 is really about 4% of the population. That’s at least the third such “study”, and at least one of them, ahem Stanford, is clearly bunk. However, the fact that we’re seeing this 4% number coming up repeatedly tells me that this narrative is being pushed by some sort of focus group.

More happy gas! Doesn’t it just smell exquisite?

Still, even if a whopping 4% of the population contracted it, making it at least and order of magnitude more than current data indicates it doesn’t change the fact that so called herd immunity doesn’t kick in until you have around 80% of the population inoculated.

D. Paddy
D. Paddy
1 year ago

Yeah, Worldometers is REAL truth. Sciency. Legitimate.

CDC is and has always been full of crap. But state health departments have REQUIREMENTS to report to CDC.

Where do numbers come from?

Who is

Who owns

Can you name an actual human person in charge or in ownership of who owns

Is data repeatable? peer reviewed? What’s the p-value?

Who decided to use massively inflated numbers that present only partial sourcing and offer no explanation of where their numbers come from? Was the decision made out of hysteria?

Yes, CDC is crap; but it’s “official” crap; not made up out of whole clothe by untraceable nobodies.

1 year ago

This is schizophrenic nonsense.