For whatever it might be worth—almost certain to be little or nothing—my own view is that a general, widespread military-style conflict as most people conceive of it is unlikely in the extreme, regardless of how severely the Country Class is provoked. Geo- and demographic realities militate against it, for one thing. Unlike in 1860, the two sides are NOT divided neatly into North and South; for the most part, Team Liberty and Team Tyranny live cheek-by-jowl. In CW v1.0, Johnny Reb in Charleston probably never met a Boston Bluebelly in his entire life personally, and didn’t know a single living soul who had. But today, your average Real American probably has a Kommie Karen or Ken for a next-door neighbor, with plenty more scattered around the neighborhood.
This situation tends to complicate things, as does the simple fact that, unlike in Olden Thymes, the average American middle-class schlub has precisely no (zip, zero, nada) military training or knowledge at all. Hell, most of ’em wouldn’t know the procedure for inserting a loaded mag and putting a semi-auto rifle into battery, much less be able to hit the broad side of a bull’s ass at 20 yards with it. And that’s under quiet, peaceable conditions with nobody shooting back at him. Under fire, his personal prospects would suddenly nosedive from “not too good” level down to “deader” immediately.
Admittedly, Karen and/or Ken next door viscerally LOATHE weaponry and all the other white-supremacist, misogynist, homophobic military-type trimmings that go along with revolution and war, making their odds of survival against even an all-thumbs suburban klutz even longer. So there’s that.
My own view, which shifts on the regular these days, is that if the current middling-temperature conflict ever DOES go full-on hot, the form it will most likely take will be sabotage, monkey-wrenchery, and shoot-and-scoot sniper activity, perhaps even scattered small-unit raids undertaken by people with the training and experience to pull it off. Don’t expect to see any mass-media reportage of any such things either, at least not in the beginning. Possibly not at all, unless the sabotaging and raiding become widespread and successful enough that even a press as heavily invested in the Deep State status quo as ours can no longer keep things swept neatly under the rug.
And once that line is crossed all hell breaks loose. Because the moment the idea sets in with Big Papa Gov’t that they might actually not be winning this thing after all, and their iron-fisted grip on an increasingly broad swathe of the subject-population might be loosening, the US military will be formally called to come out and play. Which also happens to be the moment when all bets are fully OFF—and, as Aesop has said, life as we’ve all known it is over for good, regardless of how things shake out in the end.
Which, of course, is not to say that Real Americans shouldn’t bother trying to regain their rightful liberty, nor to blanch at any and all means of securing it—should instead just swallow their pride, surrender their natural rights, and accept the ignominious destiny of oppression, dependency, and voiceless servitude intended for them. But it DOES help to explain the seeming reluctance of most Normals to take that last irreversible step into the unknown, don’t it? Hamlet wasn’t just whistling Dixie when he wondered: