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Bill Gertz: Ukraine on the Brink

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

A Russian Vishnya-class intelligence-gathering ship arrived in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday. (Twitter)

A Russian Vishnya-class intelligence-gathering ship arrived in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday. (Twitter)

Russian military forces continued massing within six miles of Ukraine’s eastern border regions as tensions increased over Moscow’s so far bloodless attempt to take control of the country by force under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians.

In Kiev, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebiynis said the massing of Russian forces near Ukraine’s eastern border appeared to be preparation for a military invasion, Ukraine’s Unian news agency reported.

Border troops reported Russian forces massing near borders in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions.

“Those actions taken by representatives of the Russian state authorities may be evidence that Russia is preparing for a possible invasion on Ukrainian territory through its land border with Ukraine,” Perebiynis said.

Posted in Editorial | Tagged Bill Gertz, Ukraine | Comments Off

Russian markets plunge as Putin tightens Crimea grip

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

Military personnel, believed to be Russian servicemen, walk in formation outside the territory of a Ukrainian military unit in the village of Perevalnoye outside Simferopol March 3, 2014. REUTERS-David Mdzinarishvili

Russia paid a heavy financial price on Monday for its military intervention in neighboring Ukraine, with stocks, bonds and the ruble plunging as President Vladimir Putin’s forces tightened their grip on the Russian-speaking Crimea region.

The Moscow stock market fell 10.8 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies – more than the $51 billion Russia spent on the Winter Olympics in Sochi last month.

The central bank spent as much as $12 billion of its reserves to prop up the ruble as investors took fright at tensions with the West over the former Soviet republic.

Putin declared at the weekend he had the right to invade Ukraine to protect Russian interests and citizens.

Posted in Editorial, Financial | Tagged Russia, Stock Market, Ukraine | Comments Off

Russia And China Stand In Agreement On Ukraine – And That Is Very Bad News For The United States

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

Vladimir_Putin_with_Zhang_Deguang

So much for “isolating” Russia. The Chinese government is publicly siding with Russia on the crisis in Ukraine, and that is very bad news for the United States. Not only does it mean that the U.S. is essentially powerless to do anything about the situation in Ukraine, it also means that Russia and China are starting to understand how much economic leverage that they really have. Yes, the Obama administration can threaten to slap “sanctions” on Russia or threaten to kick Russia “out of the G8“, but those actions would not actually hurt too much. On the other hand, Russia and China hold approximately 25 percent of all foreign-owned U.S. debt, and if they started massively dumping U.S. debt it could rapidly create a nightmare scenario. In addition, it is important to remember that Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second largest exporter of oil in the world. And China now imports more oil than anyone else on the planet does, including the United States. If Russia and China got together and decided to kill the petrodollar, they could do it almost overnight. So when it comes to Ukraine, it is definitely not the United States that has the leverage.

If China and the rest of the world abandoned Russia over Ukraine, that would be one thing. But that is not happening at all. In fact, China has chosen to publicly stand with Russia on this issue. The following is from a Sky News article entitled “Russia And China ‘In Agreement’ Over Ukraine“…

Posted in Editorial | Tagged China, Russia, Ukraine | Comments Off

Campaign of Cannibalism

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

by T.L. Davis

When settlers came to America they had to struggle from the ground up. There was no existing government with which they had to contend. The only government they had, they brought with them in the form of mutual compacts. This was the miracle of self-governance into most had been born and had become accustomed until the colonies began to create wealth that inflamed the greed of Britain.

As a means to enrich itself, Britain passed laws against the liberty of the settlers; choosing for itself a larger and larger share of the profits from their labor. It took more than a century for the laws to become so oppressive that the colonists began to resist, eventually throwing off that yoke. Ingrained in the American psyche, however, was the thought that they could govern themselves; that they needed no master from whom to beg privileges. All they needed was the liberty to create and the freedom to dare.

Now, as American sloth and apathy (encouraged by would-be masters) has replaced those noble instincts toward self-government and self-reliance the mechanism of strength and liberty is failing. Like a long neglected engine, it is starting to falter. It is a mixture of ingredients that make the American engine run smoothly, but that recipe is lost. Those entrusted with it have replaced self-reliance with dependency; liberty with compliance; duty with force and pride with shame.

Posted in Editorial | Tagged T.L. Davis | Comments Off

Fool for a pResident

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

Obama’s Latest Tactic: “Isolate Russia”

After once again clearly delineating that Russian “costs” are set to surge, and hopefully he means more than just the drop in the Micex and its artificial, paper wealth effect which Putin couldn’t care less about as long as crude is soaring…

OBAMA SAYS INCIDENT WITH UKRAINE WILL BE ‘COSTLY’ FOR RUSSIA

… the US president has laid out his latest tactic:

OBAMA SAYS HE’S CONSIDERING ECONOMIC STEPS TO ISOLATE RUSSIA

Posted in Editorial | Tagged Obama | Comments Off

Invasion Models in Connecticut

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

Guerrillamerica

by Sam Culper III

For the benefit of quasi-academic exercise, let’s assume that the absolute worst happens in Connecticut (CT): a federal invasion. (Although the likelihood is low right now, it could be a plausible scenario in another state for the government of tomorrow.) If I was tasked to analyze and wargame that scenario, my initial key assumptions would be:

a) nothing, surrounding states included, would be able to prevent it;

b) the invasion’s only acceptable outcome is total victory;

c) the invasion would be justified by a credible threat or action of violence; and

d) it would take the form of counterinsurgency (COIN) up front.

Expanding on Key Assumption D, we have two likely invasion models: Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posted in Editorial | Tagged Sam Culper III | Comments Off

Moscow will halt military steps in Ukraine – only after a US guarantee not to post missile shield there

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

Russian troops in Crimea region

Russian troops in Crimea region

As Washington and the Europeans – and especially the UK – continue to decry Russian military aggression, the US and Russians have quietly entered into intense negotiations on a compromise for resolving their dispute over Ukraine, DEBKAfile’s Washington and Moscow sources report.

Moscow insists on keeping in place the military forces which took control of Crimea over the weekend, but is ready to discuss terms for restraining the Russian army from advancing into the Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine.

The exchanges between the two powers are going through Berlin. The German government is making every effort to dispel the winds of war coming in from the east. Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Vladimir Putin conferred Sunday night by phone and decided to talk again about ways of promoting the negotiations.

Our sources were unable to confirm that Merkel ever said to President Barack Obama when she reported on the conversation in reference to Putin that “she was not sure he was in touch with reality. He lives in another world.”

Senior official sources reported instead that the chancellor had proposed to Putin that Russian troops be withdrawn in stages from Crimea and their place taken by European Union observers.

Posted in Editorial, War | Tagged Crimea, Missile Shield, Russia, Ukraine | Comments Off

North Carolina school board votes to keep controversial book in high school curriculum

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

A North Carolina school board will keep in its high school curriculum a book that tackles abortion, torture, rape and prostitution.

The Watauga County school board voted 3-2 on Thursday to keep Isabel Allende’s “The House of the Spirits” in the curriculum after the mother of a sophomore at Watauga High read the book assigned to her son and asked teachers to ban it, Fox 8 reported, citing the Winston-Salem Journal.

The vote follows a five-month controversy over the novel, a New York Times bestseller, which is recommended by the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction as part of the Common Core curriculum.

“Parents need and deserve an opt-out if they don’t want their children to read this particular book,” said board member Brenda Reese, who added she has read the book twice since the challenge first came up in October. “But I don’t feel like we should pull this book from the class.”

h/t Keith H

Posted in Editorial, Education | Comments Off

13,000 Mine-Resistant Armored Vehicles To Be Distributed To Police Depts Around Country

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

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The U.S. Army is giving away 13,000 armored trucks, worth about $500,000 each. The 20-ton MRAPs, or Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected trucks, were built specifically to save U.S. soldiers from roadside bombs in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Now the trucks are patrolling U.S. city streets. U.S. law enforcement agencies have received the lion’s share of this high-powered military surplus.

Posted in Editorial | Comments Off

Global Equities Tumble Over Ukraine Fear

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

We were perhaps even more amused than our readers by our Friday headline “Stocks Close At New Record High On Russian Invasion, GDP Decline And Pending Home Sales Miss.” It appears that today the market forgot to take its lithium, and is finally focusing on the Ukraine part of the headline, at least until 3:30 pm again when everything should once again be back to market ramp normal. As expected, the PMI data from China and Europe in February, was promptly ignored and it was all about Ukraine again, where Russia sternly refuses to yield to Western demands, forcing the shocked market to retreat lower, and sending Russian stocks lower by over 11%. This is happening even as Ukraine is sending Russian gas to European consumers as normal, gas transport monopoly Ukrtransgas said on Monday. “Ukrtransgas is carrying out all its obligations, fulfilling all agreements with Gazprom. The transit (via Ukraine to Europe) totalled 200 million cubic meters as of March 1,” Ukrtransgas spokesman Maksim Belyavsky said. In other words, it can easily get worse should Russia indeed use its trump card.

Even though Bunds have failed to close the opening gap higher amid an escalation of concerns surrounding Ukraine, stocks in Europe managed to come off lows, supported by the latest PMI data and reports that gas flow from Ukraine is unaffected. Nevertheless, risk aversion remained the dominant theme and heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen lower across the board, with financials underperforming. At the same time, commodities and precious metals benefited the most from the flight to quality, with Brent surging over USD 2 overnight and wheat rising the most since September 2012. As a guide, more than half of Russia’s gas exports to the EU are shipped through Ukraine, which is also the third biggest corn shipper and the sixth-largest wheat exporter.

Related Article:

Stocks: Hit by rising turmoil in Ukraine

Posted in Editorial, Financial | Comments Off

Rubio: Russia has a ‘government of liars’

Posted on March 3, 2014 by DRenegade

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=filWTMGbiTk

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) blasted Russian leaders Sunday morning, calling them a “government of liars.”

“The Russians have basically violated every major treaty they’ve ever entered into. We’ve seen how they’ve basically lied. Let’s call it what it is. They are lying and this government is a government of liars, the Russian government,” Rubio said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“You’re dealing with a government that lies as a matter of course and it’s very difficult to enter an understanding with them on anything when they’re willing to lie and cover things up in this way,” Rubio continued.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

While I am not disagreeing with Sen. Rubio’s assessment of the Russian government, I would make the case that our government’s deceit is even worse. Of course, I do not know many people who would classify Russia as being honest even before Ukraine. Maybe the pResident, when he said he would be more flexible with Russia after he was reelected.

How many examples have we seen where our “leaders” lie under oath to Congress? I do not need to make a list outlining our government’s transgressions against the people in the United States.

I would rather deal with an opponent where you know they are not trustworthy than listen to a “friend” who is lying to your face. Both are found out but the repercussions in the latter case usually are most severe. Think Eric Holder, Hillary Clinton and James Clapper.

David DeGerolamo

Posted in Domestic Enemies, Editorial | Tagged Rubio | Comments Off

Connecticut BICC/E

Posted on March 2, 2014 by DRenegade

Guerrillamerica

by Sam Culper

A couple months ago, I introduced everyone to my BICC/E analytical method. (You can learn it here.) This method looks at adversarial realities, and then charts a way forward for developing potential COAs. It’s a tool that informs us of the operating picture, and allows us to anticipate and plan for adversarial action. BICC/E stands for: Behavior, Intent, Capabilities, and Consequences/Effects. It’s the way we survey what’s happening, what an adversary wants to happen, if the adversary can achieve those goals, and then examines the second- and third-order effects along with the acceptability of those outcomes. Let’s apply a very basic BICC/E analysis to what’s going on in Connecticut (the Dispatch BICC/E analysis will be more in-depth).

Behavior.

The Connecticut (CT) state government and law enforcement agencies are concerned about citizens’ defiance over the new gun registration law. The law was found by a federal judge to not violate the Second Amendment. Roughly 55,000 residents registered their weapons in accordance with the law, while up to an estimated 300,000 did not (a more conservative estimate is 100,000). The state government introduced an amnesty period for the potentially 300,000 new felons to register their weapons to avoid punishment. As of last week, CT law enforcement (LE) and/or the governor’s office drafted a new letter targeting non-compliant gun owners; however, the letter has not been sent out.

Posted in Editorial | Tagged Sam Culper | Comments Off

Muslim Peace

Posted on March 2, 2014 by DRenegade

Since the article below comes from Arab News, they conveniently left out the fact that “Nigeria’s extremist group Boko Haram” is an Islamic terrorist group. One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter. As patriots in the United States are labelled “terrorists” for supporting the Constitution.

David DeGerolamo

51 killed in car bombs in north Nigeria

Twin car bomb blasts at a bustling marketplace killed at least 51 people in Maiduguri, the northeast Nigerian city that is the birthplace of Nigeria’s extremist group Boko Haram, a Red Cross official said Sunday.

Many more people are believed buried in rubble from the Saturday night explosions that collapsed some buildings and set others aflame with smoke billowing for hours, said the official who insisted on anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

Posted in Editorial, Radical Islam | Tagged Boko Haram | Comments Off

Indians lose crores in bitcoins as Japan exchange collapses

Posted on March 2, 2014 by DRenegade

Indians lose crores in bitcoins as Japan exchange collapses

In a rude jolt to growing virtual currency frenzy in India, bitcoins worth crores of rupees held by some Indians have vanished with collapse of Japan-based Mt Gox, which was the world’s largest bitcoin exchange so far.

Having filed for bankruptcy, Mt Gox has admitted to have lost 7.5 lakh (one lakh = 100,000) bitcoins of its customers and one lakh of its own, which together are estimated to be worth about $0.5 billion (over Rs. 3,000 crore).

The exchange was predominantly used by foreigners, including those operating on behalf of clients from India, while some Indians were directly trading there. In its bankruptcy filing, Mt Gox has listed 1.27 lakh creditors, bulks of which are foreigners and just about 1,000 from Japan.

Posted in Editorial, Financial | Tagged Bitcoin | Comments Off

ECSUM March 2, 2014

Posted on March 2, 2014 by DRenegade

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is (and will be) dominating the news cycle. Unfortunately for the pResident and the media, they have no control over this situation and cannot replace it with a different “crisis”. An example of the endless bait and switch last week was the news regarding the nation’s GDP: it was revised downward from 3.2% to 2.4%. While a 25% reduction would normally signal a weak and/or declining economy, the news was greeted by a rally on Wall Street with expectations of the Fed printing more money. JP Morgan announced that they will be “firing thousands”. China’s currency is collapsing as the world’s recession is erasing demand.

1.US GDP cut to 2.4% as growth slows

The US economy grew at a slower pace in the last quarter of 2013 than initially estimated, extending a string of weak data that could raise pressure on the Federal Reserve to reconsider its “tapering” of bond purchases.

Fourth-quarter gross domestic product was revised to annualised rate of 2.4 per cent, down sharply from the previous 3.2 per cent estimate which was made when the Fed started slowing its quantitative easing programme.

The revision was roughly in line with economists’ expectations and mainly caused by lower consumer spending growth, from 3.3 per cent to 2.6 per cent, evidence that Americans were not quite as confident about making purchases during the holiday season as previously thought.

2.JP Morgan To Fire Thousands

Continue reading →

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